Much of my writing even though it is fictional is based on real time events. Much of the issues that face Africa along
with regional declination and degradation are referenced throughout my book. Many hope that peace may be attained and much
of the unrest that is associated with military conflict and famine needs to be addressed by the U.N. along with diverting
attention away from thoughtless and fruitless campaigns. In order to move toward peace, people need to have hope. Hope
is something that is clearly unseen but is as apparent as these words that are written. In order to provide hope to those
that so diligently seek it, the powers that be need to find ways to broker power to the leaders and give them a bargaining
chip to give something positive and powerful back to these dying nations. Again, I say, much of Portentum is based on actual
events but applied to a ficional setting. I will address these components as the readers provide helpful feedback as they
digest the words of my book. Below is an example of how these blogs will be published. This, in red,
is a news story based on actual events. Below the story, in green, is a portion of my
book that addresses the oil crises and its impact on the region that is part of my book.
Unrest in Nigeria's southern oil region the Niger Delta, the theatre of a spate of kidnappings in recent
months, is set to continue through the elections scheduled for April, analysts and security experts say.
"I see violence in the delta staying at the current levels right through these elections", a Lagos-based
risk consultant told AFP.
The people of the delta complain that while their region generates 95 percent of Nigeria's foreign
currency earnings, they have little to show for this in terms of development or living standards.
A leading security contractor cited the country's "North-South sectarian divide between Muslims and
Christians", the three biggest ethnic groups vying for power, the "dysfunctional democracy in place," the rampant corruption
and the lack of self-determination for, among others, the country's 14 million Ijaw people.
"As long as that situation prevails there is going to be a degree of discontent in the Niger delta",
he said.
The region's most prominent armed militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta
(MEND), earlier this week released one of the four hostages it was holding but made it very clear that it would hang onto
the other three and vowed to intensify its campaign of violence destined to "drive oil companies out of the Niger Delta" and
"halt production".
The Nigerian government, which has said it lost some 570 billion naira (around 4.4 billion dollars,
3.5 billion euros) in 2006 oil revenue because of disruptions to production in the Niger delta, appears to be at a loss as
to what tactic to adopt next.
In August it promised to get tough on hostage-takers. Towards the end of the year the military launched
its first "commando operation" to rescue a group of foreign hostages but killed one of them, a Briton, in the attempt. Since
then the security forces have become increasingly tight-lipped about events in the Delta.
MEND on Friday said it would take as many hostages as it saw fit and that there was "nothing the Nigerian
government can do".
There has been a sharp escalation in violence in the delta since the beginning of 2006 when MEND emerged.
In 2006 alone, more than 60 foreigners, mostly oil workers, were kidnapped, and dozens of Nigerians were killed by militants
and bandits.
"Because of the success that MEND has achieved what we have seen is a lot of bandwagon jumping, people
doing copycat crime. There has been a massive increase in kidnap and ransom", the security contractor noted.
He said that "the army, because of a lack of manpower, a lack of equipment, a lack of leadership, a
lack of intelligence, currently lacks the capacity to police the Niger delta. A lot of what they do is reactive and retaliatory".
"All the army can do is escalate violence", agreed the risk consultant.
Geographically the creeks and swamps of the delta are difficult to police, even for the most motivated
force.
There is therefore a risk, observers say, that Nigeria's aggressive plans to boost capacity by 2010
might just result in creating more opportunities for violent crime.
The country aims to boost reserves to 40 billion barrels from some 35 billion currently and production
to 4 million barrels per day, up from 2.7 million bpd currently when all facilities are operating at capacity.
It also wants to reduce flaring, the burning of waste gas, by harnessing the gas in question and to
be refining some 50 per cent of its total crude production, against some 12 percent currently.
"If you're trying to build capacity on top of a situation of extreme unrest all you're doing is creating
more armed opposition", the security contractor said.
Now that the most security conscious oil majors and their service providers have put in place rigorous
security, industry sources say that both militants and mere criminals looking to make ransom money will increasingly target
those companies whose security is lax.
With the April elections meant to usher in the country's first ever hand over from one civilian administration
to another and with the Gulf of Guinea accounting for an ever-greater portion of US oil imports, Washington is following Nigeria
closely.
US Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, in his annual threat assessment earlier this
month, singled out three African states, Somalia, Sudan and Nigeria, whose government, he said, "has been unable to stem rising
lawlessness and insecurity in its oil-producing region".
Some of his compatriots, such as analyst J Peter Pham, go one step further and warn that the Niger
Delta could become a potential breeding ground for Islamic militants.
Pham wrote late last year in the World Defense Review that unrest in the delta is largely attributable
to "underdevelopment, environmental degradation and violence", but went on to warn against underestimating "the potential
risk of al-Qaeda or other outside terrorist organisation exploiting these tensions to strike at one of our vulnerabilities,
our dependence on the West African region to supply 15 percent of our hydrocarbon needs".
.